MLB postseason history suggests that this Yankees-Dodgers matchup is probably over. The history of the Yankees-Dodgers World Series suggests otherwise.
Playoff teams that take a 2–0 lead have won the series 77 out of 92 times (84%). But in each of the last two Fall Classics between the Yankees and Dodgers (1978, 1981), and three of their last five October meetings (1956), the home team won the first two games – losing only the series.
So, which history is more likely to repeat itself? 2024 world seriesFox Sports MLB Expert Rowan Kavner And Deesha Thosar Take a look at the first two games in Los Angeles and what could happen if the series moves to New York.
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1. What are you expecting from Shohei Ohtani the rest of this series after suffering a shoulder injury in Game 2?
Can do: Hard to say until we see that first swing. Dave Roberts sounded encouraging when referencing Ohtani’s strength and range of motion, but it’s hard to know until we see it in action. Then again, we’re talking about Ohtani, the guy who hit a walk-off grand slam to reach 40/40 and played the greatest single game ever to reach 50/50. Even if he is limited, his presence alone is important for the Dodgers if he is able to get going. Something tells me he has at least one more big swing, one more defining moment left in a season full of them.
Thosar: We still don’t have all the information we need to know how well he’s recovered from Saturday, but my gut says I’d be surprised if there’s any noticeable difference from Ohtani at the plate — it’s the World Series, and I’d expect that from him. Expecting him to give his all. If there is a change in his mechanics due to a partial shoulder dislocation, he may need a few at-bats to get used to the best swing without pain. At least in Game 3, I think Ohtani won’t be as prone to steals to ensure he doesn’t injure himself further.
2. How much of Aaron Judge’s postseason struggles do you think have been mental as opposed to mechanical at this point?
Thosar: His poor swing decisions and how much he was chasing offspeed pitches are a strong indication that Judge is on his mind. It’s not like his talent evaporated overnight, and though he’s faced tough pitching in the World Series, his star teammates have found a way to step up at some point in a nine-inning game, Therefore this cannot be an excuse. Now that the story that he struggled in the playoffs has reached its peak and put all the pressure on Judge to come up big in Game 3, it will be extremely important for him to block out the noise and remind himself that he is the best Was a player. in the major leagues over the last six months.
Can do: Possibly a combo, but it should at least be part of the mix. When you’re saying things like, “I’m failing them,” how can that not be the case? Mookie Betts, when he was going through his October routine, talked about how he took hundreds of swings a day and turned off social media for a while. Once he got some production late in the NLDS, he regained his confidence and started looking like himself again. However, Bates attacks about half as often as Judge.
This is the tough part for the Yankees skipper, who has struck out six of his nine at-bats in this series and struck out 13 of his 22 at-bats dating back to Game 3 of the ALCS. If there is a weakness in a player’s game or a swing and a miss, it will be exploited in the postseason. The good thing for them is that there is still time to rewrite their October story. But it has to happen fast.
3. What has surprised you most in the two games?
Can do: How different Freddy Freeman has looked. When he went down with his ankle sprain in late September, it was considered a 4-6 week injury, so it would be understandable if he turned up just a month later. But in that timeline he was believed to be resting and rehabbing, not paying attention to the issue (and often feeling bad about it). His presence in the Dodgers’ lineup is a challenging one, regardless of production, but considering how much the ankle had sapped his power for the first two rounds, I didn’t think a week off would turn him into a solo machine. Will be enough for. A home run-mashing difference-maker. However, his teammates clearly noticed a change in that week between the NLCS and the World Series. He looks like a completely different player in the World Series. Normally, it’s his walks that cause him problems (which is why he was so limited late in the NLCS). I’ll be curious to see how his ankle fares the longer this series goes on.
Also, the second biggest stunner for me involved Freeman. I was surprised to see the Yankees turn to starter Nestor Cortes, who had not pitched all month due to an elbow problem, in the middle of an inning, in the highest of leverage spots, to face the top of the Dodgers’ order. For the 10th inning in Game 1. Obviously, we saw how it happened.
Thosar: The complete absence of the judge as a legitimate threat has been very surprising. Even if there was a regression, and he wasn’t getting as many base hits, I expected him to at least get on base with a walk against Dodgers starters Jack Flaherty and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, given that That both pitchers should have been nervous to pitch got him in the zone. But the more he hit his hands and feet towards the plate, the more comfortable the pitchers became for him. By the end of Game 2, he was automatically out, and I don’t think Any Saw him coming.
4. Do you believe the series will return to Los Angeles?
Thosar: I think the Series is going back to Los Angeles because I don’t think the Yankees will collapse without a fight, and I’m hoping Judge wakes up in the Bronx in front of the home fans. I think the Yankees slugger needed a rest day and reset more than anything, so after a break from the madness on Sunday, he should return to a more semblance of himself in more familiar surroundings. There’s a good chance New York can win two of the next three games with three consecutive right-handers starting on the mound, but that battle continues with a strong start right away from home on Monday. Will have to increase. If the Yankees fall to 0-3, I have little confidence the series will go back to LA
Can do: I do, although I also think the Dodgers take one in the Bronx. The Yankees’ biggest advantage in this series was always their rotation. It hasn’t worked out yet and losing starts to Gerrit Cole was a huge blow for them, especially considering how well Cole had pitched, but they also had the upper hand in depth when it came to starting pitching. Clark Schmidt and Luis Gil have been better this year than any healthy pitcher the Dodgers have had since Jack Flaherty and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
So then, bet against Walker Buehler in a big game at your own risk. In what felt like a whisper his last time out, he displayed some very encouraging signs, especially with his secondary stuff. Still, the Dodgers will have to run a bullpen game in Game 4 without Evan Phillips, and then the Yankees will get another Gerrit Cole start. The theme of this postseason for the Dodgers has been how their fans finally got a chance to celebrate October success in a way they couldn’t when the team won in 2020. The Dodgers won the NLDS at home this year, then won the NLCS at home. My gut says it’s 3-2 going back to Los Angeles, where they’ll have a chance to finish it off again at Dodger Stadium.
5. Do you think the outcome of this series will have any impact on Juan Soto’s free-agent decision? Do you expect him to eventually sign with the Yankees?
Can do: Not necessary. You can come up with any number of narratives – that if they win the World Series he’ll be more inclined to stay, or that if they fall short he might be motivated to get the job done – but ultimately. , money talks. There’s a team across the bridge that has a lot more, but I’d be surprised if the Yankees don’t find a way to do whatever they need to do to keep Soto in pinstripes. They’ll never hear the end of it.
Thosar: I think it will be hard for Soto to walk away from the Yankees if they win a championship together. Likewise, it would be much more difficult for the Yankees to do anything other than make Soto a competitive offer that he presumably couldn’t refuse so soon after winning the title. Ultimately, I expect Soto to sign with the Yankees as he is a perfect fit in the Bronx and has excelled in New York – as evidenced by his career highs in home runs, hits and runs scored. Hal Steinbrenner and Brian Cashman will have to do their part by meeting or getting close to his asking price.
Rowan Kavner MLB writer for Fox Sports. He previously covered the LA Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. A graduate of LSU, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter @rowankevner,
Deesha Thosar MLB writer for Fox Sports. He previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Disha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow him on Twitter @DeeshaThosar,
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