Who will be Japan’s next prime minister? Ruling LDP’s ‘particularly chaotic’ party election set to begin

After a week when the citizens of Japan were preparing themselves for the potential danger great earthquakeThe biggest earthquake came from its political center, when Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced his decision. to resign Next month.

His three-year term will expire at the end of September, when his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will select a new president, who is certain to be approved as Japan’s next prime minister in the LDP-controlled parliament.

Kishida’s decision paved the way for one of the most unexpected contests for the LDP presidency in recent years.

“By dropping out of the race, Kishida has cleared the way for a particularly chaotic LDP election, turning what had already looked like a competitive race with a weak incumbent candidate into a free-for-all contest with several potential contenders but no clear favorite,” said Tobias Harris, founder of the Japan Foresight political risk advisory firm.

The list of potential successors includes party insiders, isolated ministers and, unusually for Japan, two lawmakers under the age of 50. The potential inclusion of two women in the race raises the possibility – although at this stage it seems unlikely – that the country will appoint its first female prime minister.

It is fitting that the outcome of the party election is so difficult to predict, as it comes at a time of deep uncertainty for the LDP. The LDP is a loose coalition of conservatives that has ruled Japan almost without interruption since its formation in the mid-1950s.

Kishida’s withdrawal from the election race is said to be the result of a series of scandals that have dogged his prime ministership: revelations about his party’s ties to the Unification Church. Assassination of Shinzo Abe In July 2022 and more recently, public anger over an incident Fundraising scandal This marked the beginning of the end of his tenure.

The LDP at least has time on its side. The priority for its next leader will be to regain public confidence ahead of the next lower house elections, which are not due until October next year. His successor will have to deal with rising costs of living, growing tensions with China and North Korea, and Possible return of Donald Trump As US President.

“If the LDP chooses its next leader in a way that ignores public criticism of political funding scandals, the party could face a crushing defeat,” said political analyst Atsuo Ito. “The party should choose someone young who has no ties to the current administration and who can give the LDP a new direction.”

Ito said this would eliminate the chances of party Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi as his association with a brand of factional horse-trading was driving voters away.

Shigeru Ishiba, 60, may have a chance to revive the party’s fortunes. Ishiba, a former defense minister, has confirmed his intention to run. Ishiba has failed in four attempts to become party leader, but has consistently performed well among voters. He should have no difficulty winning the support of 20 lawmakers, which candidates need to enter the race, which will be decided among the party’s 1.1 million members.

Ishiba may face challenges from digital minister Taro Konoa fellow liberal, and Shinjirō KoizumiThe 43-year-old former environment minister and son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi.

More interestingly, it also includes two women.

Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi, a darling of the party’s right wing, showed off her conservative credentials during a visit on Thursday. YasukuniIt is a shrine paying tribute to Japanese war dead and is seen by some as a symbol of the country’s militaristic past.

Despite his recent troubles, Kishida could still have a say on who replaces him, especially if he lends his support to another potential candidate. yoko kamikawawhom he appointed last year JapanShe is the first woman foreign minister in nearly two decades.

Michitaka Masuyama, a professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, said the LDP’s next leader “must be able to unify the party and manage the government.” “A person with experience is better than someone who is only popular in voter surveys. If Kishida chooses Kamikawa and others in the LDP join him, she could be the one.”

Kishida found some relief this week when he invited Japan’s medal winners at the Paris Olympics. at his official residenceHe said she had “given energy and courage to the whole country.” But it would be left to her successor to instill those same qualities into his faltering party.