The golden age of the All Blacks’ Whitelock and Retallick is over. What can we expect from their successors under Razor?

Three defeats to Argentina in just a few years. A national sport under threat from wealthy Northern Hemisphere clubs and recalcitrant provincial unions. A much-vaunted novice international coach is facing criticism after some disappointing performances from his young team.

Who would have thought the Springboks would win the World Cup the following season? And then again four years later?

Those reacting with disappointment, sadness and grief to the All Blacks’ recent loss to Argentina need not be too far off. Recent history shows that Los Pumas are sometimes capable of such upsets and that the big rugby nations can find ways to recover from periods of struggle.

New Zealand will not achieve this by copying South Africa, and our benchmark is probably not the phenomenally successful era of Richie McCaw. In this article we will look at what we can expect from the All Blacks in the near and distant future. Then in the second part we will explain how New Zealand rugby can get back on top and stay there.

Team status
Until 2018, the Springboks had suffered far more humiliating defeats than the All Blacks. Of course, both teams have been beaten three times by Argentina, but New Zealand keep beating Italy and have never lost by a margin greater than 57-0. Also, they have managed to keep almost all of their first-choice international players at home and the financial situation is not as dire.

South Africa, on the other hand, had already been bleeding a golden generation into the green jersey for many years. A great group of age-mates who went on to form a big part of two World Cup-winning teams. This is a very rare asset, which Rassie Erasmus exploited brilliantly.

Unfortunately, new All Blacks coach Scott Robertson has none of that available to him. A better parallel can be found in John Hart’s 1998 All Blacks, who had lost or were about to lose GOATs and great players such as Sean Fitzpatrick, Michael Jones, Zinzan Brooke, Olo Brown, Walter Little and Frank Bunce. Suddenly there was a soft centre in the pack, while the remaining generations were nowhere near the same level. Also, a significant part of the backline were inexperienced in their roles at Test level.

(Photo: Hannah Peters/Getty Images)

This is what Razor Robertson has inherited. Just before the 2023 World Cup I wrote an article stating that “the All Blacks have been badly exposed for being far removed from their golden generation of forwards.” Since then, Brodie Retallick, Sam Whitelock, Dane Coles, Aaron Smith, Richie Mounga and Shannon Frizell have dropped out of the squad, with Sam Cane and TJ Perenara set to leave the squad next.

With the Copper generation now senior professionals, youngsters and benchwarmers have to fill the void left by Golden in two key areas. Lock and blindside flank are the engines of a modern team and New Zealand lost three of the four players who played these roles so powerfully at the end of the World Cup. It will not be easy for their replacements to face their five or six tough Springbok opponents over the next fortnight – although the Springboks’ injury problems may help. Meanwhile, replacements Richie Mo’unga and Aaron Smith have not spent much time in the Nos. 9 and 10 black jerseys leading up to the game.

What to expect from Razor All Blacks
It’s not just new teams that are inconsistent. Inexperienced Test coaches also have a lot of learning to do. Reiser has plenty of experience as a head coach at lower levels, but the mentors who have had immediate Test success in the last 20 years have either had two hemispheres or Test match experience. For example, Jacques Nienaber, Fabien Galthié, Eddie Jones, Joe Schmidt, Steve Hansen, Warren Gatland and Graham Henry. The same applies to those who have had success a little later, such as Steve Borthwick, Andy Farrell and Rassie Erasmus. Robertson doesn’t have that and neither do most of his assistants and other staff.

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So don’t expect too much from this first year. Hope so but don’t expect. Right now they are going to a very established team and coach who are the best in the world, really great. Winning even once in Africa would be a great achievement and a 2-0 home win is a possibility. There could also be an embarrassing situation like South Africa’s 57-0 defeat in Albany or their defeat to Italy at the end of a most difficult year. But either way it will be good experience and the coach and his new players will only get better.

How much better? Who knows? Perhaps not at the level of the GOAT McCaw era, but no team should be blamed for failing to reach those standards. The Copper generation is now being relied upon for leadership, so it is unlikely to be great, but with some promising (and at least older) young players stepping up, the team should be a real contender in 2027 and remain at the top table of rugby nations.

South Africa head coach Rassie Erasmus before a Qatar Airways Cup match at Twickenham Stadium in London. Image date: Saturday June 22, 2024. (Photo by Andrew Matthews/PA Images via Getty Images)

What about the long term?
New Zealand’s current situation seems worse than reality to many as the Kiwis have been spoiled (and enemies in shock) by the All Blacks’ long run of success. The Kiwi dominance has lasted so long that it has come to be seen as normal, when in fact it was always going to be a victim of the cycle of life. In fact, it has been great to see the mature attitude of some South African Roarers who are enjoying their current generation and know it may not last long.

To properly evaluate the All Blacks, or indeed New Zealand’s ability to produce an All Black team of an acceptable standard of play, we need to avoid the trap of recent times – which has clouded much of the current debate – and look at our history from a long-term perspective.

Which takes us back to 1998. Over the next six years the All Blacks failed to make a World Cup final, didn’t win the Bledisloe for five years and fell behind first Australia and then England. Going further back, there was victory in 1996-97 but from 1991-1995 Australia and South Africa won World Cups and tied the Bledisloe Tests. Then further back, from 1987-1990 New Zealand dominated but before that Australia won easily in New Zealand and for a long time the All Blacks didn’t win a series in South Africa for several decades.

So excluding the GOAT era, New Zealand has really only been completely dominant in 1987-90 and 1996-97. The greatest achievement has been that it has been the most successful in history, while other countries have had ups and downs. This should be the long-term objective, with periods of great success at the peak of the generation cycle.

Meanwhile, we are entering a period similar to the 1990s and 2000s. At that time there were five equal countries at the top table – Australia, New Zealand, England, South Africa and France. Replace Australia with Ireland and you have the top five countries today. We don’t know how long this period will last, but the important thing is to make sure New Zealand stays in the next era and beyond.

How can we achieve this? Find out in the next article!

Questions for you

Recently on the Aotearoa Pod, James Parsons said he would not accept any All Black defeats in South Africa because the huge public demand helps boost the team’s performance. Is it possible to have a realistic long-term view, without contributing to lower standards in a particular game and overall?

Also, how similar is the current team to the one in 1998? And what do you think of the All Blacks’ prospects under Razor and beyond?

over to you.