Walz has made a positive first impression on Americans, Vance not so much – poll
Over the past few weeks, Americans have learned a whole lot more about the Ohio senator JD Vance and the Minnesota governor, Tim Walz, after Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, respectively, named them as their running mates.
A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll indicates that it is Walz who has made a better first impression, with 39% viewing him either strongly or somewhat favorably, and 30% with some degree of unfavorability.
Vance, by contrast, has a 30% favorability rate, and 42% unfavorability. There’s lots to digest in the data, but here’s one interesting finding about the senator: his net favorability is at -10 points among both people without children, and with them, despite Vance decrying Democrats as “childless cat ladies”.
Vance is currently in Milwaukee, and set to soon talk about his proposals to fight crime at a police union. We’ll tell you what he says.
Key events
In further good news for Democrats, a Washington Post analysis of polling data confirms that the Sun belt states Joe Biden carried in 2020 appear winnable by Kamala Harris this year, expanding the vice-president’s pathways to the 270 electoral votes needed to become the next president. Here’s more, from the Guardian’s Robert Tait:
Kamala Harris’s surge in popularity since replacing Joe Biden as the Democratic presidential nominee has opened up a surprise second path to victory in November, according to a fresh analysis of recent voter surveys.
An aggregate of polls modelled by the Washington Post shows that the US vice-president has become newly competitive in four southern Sun belt states that were previously leaning heavily towards Donald Trump, the Republican nominee and former president.
If the trend holds, it means Harris could eke out an electoral college victory either by winning those states – Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina – or, alternatively, by capturing three swing states in the midwestern Rust belt, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Trump, by contrast, would need to capture both groups of states to earn the 270 electoral college votes necessary to secure victory, according to the model.
The opening up a potential second front in Harris’s pathway to victory may be the biggest boon yet from her elevation to the top of the Democratic ticket in place of Biden, whose only path to staying in office appeared to hinge on winning the three Rust belt states.
Walz has made a positive first impression on Americans, Vance not so much – poll
Over the past few weeks, Americans have learned a whole lot more about the Ohio senator JD Vance and the Minnesota governor, Tim Walz, after Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, respectively, named them as their running mates.
A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll indicates that it is Walz who has made a better first impression, with 39% viewing him either strongly or somewhat favorably, and 30% with some degree of unfavorability.
Vance, by contrast, has a 30% favorability rate, and 42% unfavorability. There’s lots to digest in the data, but here’s one interesting finding about the senator: his net favorability is at -10 points among both people without children, and with them, despite Vance decrying Democrats as “childless cat ladies”.
Vance is currently in Milwaukee, and set to soon talk about his proposals to fight crime at a police union. We’ll tell you what he says.
Joanna Walters
Joe Biden is expected to jump on the phone later today with the leaders of Qatar and Egypt amid a glimmer of progress towards a deal for a ceasefire deal in Gaza, including the return of remaining hostages, according to a report.
An Axios reporter has posted about this, citing a source with knowledge of the situation.
President Biden is expected to speak today on the phone with the Emir of Qatar and the President of Egypt about the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal, according to a source with knowledge https://t.co/X93cRNDNSy
— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) August 16, 2024
There is also a quote in another post, from the source, saying: “We got more progress over the last two days than the last six weeks combined.”
Overnight, Israeli forces pounded targets across tiny, crowded Gaza and issued new orders for people to leave areas it had previously designated as civilian safe zones, saying Hamas had used them to fire mortars and rockets at Israel, the Reuters agency reports, as useful context.
The conflict began on 7 October when Hamas fighters rampaged into southern Israel, killing around 1,200 people and seizing around 250 hostages according to Israeli tallies.
Israel’s military campaign has reduced much of Gaza to rubble and killed more than 40,000 Palestinians, mostly civilians, according to Palestinian health authorities. Israel says it has eliminated 17,000 Hamas fighters.
Blinken to meet Netanyahu as ceasefire talks go on – report
Joanna Walters
The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, and the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, are expected to meet in person on Monday, an Israeli official told Reuters, adding the Israeli delegation at the Doha ceasefire talks would head back to Israel tonight.
Gaza ceasefire talks in the Qatari capital were paused earlier today with negotiators set to meet again next week in search of an agreement to end fighting between Israel and Hamas and free remaining hostages, mediators said.
In a joint statement, the US, Qatar and Egypt said Washington had presented a new proposal that built on points of agreement over the past week, closing gaps between the sides in a way that could allow rapid implementation of a deal.
The path is now set for that outcome, saving lives, bringing relief to the people of Gaza, and de-escalating regional tensions,” mediators said in the statement.
Governor announces replacement for disgraced New Jersey senator Menendez
Joanna Walters
Phil Murphy, the governor of New Jersey and a Democrat, has announced that he will appoint George Helmy, his former chief of staff, to the US Senate.
Helmy will replace the senator Robert Menendez, who is stepping down next week after being convicted of bribery.
He will serve out the rest of Menendez’s term, which ends in January.
However, the congressman Andy Kim won the Democratic primary earlier this year when he challenged Menendez for his seat. He beat Murphy’s wife, Tammy Murphy, as well as Menendez, for the nomination and will face voters this November.
Phil Murphy also bypassed several other candidates who had been considered contenders, appointing one of his closest allies, Helmy, instead.
The move, Reuters reports, will maintain the Democratic party’s 51-49 majority in the Senate, until a winner takes office after the 5 November election, when control of Congress and the White House will be up for grabs.
Adam Gabbatt
Donald Trump has been criticized after he claimed that the civilian Presidential Medal of Freedom, which he bestowed on people including Republican supporters and donors during his time in office, is “much better” than the top military award for those killed or wounded in action: the Medal of Honor.
Speaking at a campaign event on Thursday, Trump made the claim as he addressed Miriam Adelson, the widow of Republican mega donor Sheldon Adelson. Trump awarded Miriam Adelson the Medal of Freedom in 2018.
“(The Medal of Freedom is) actually much better because everyone (who) gets the Congressional Medal of Honor, they’re soldiers,” Trump said.
“They’re either in very bad shape because they’ve been hit so many times by bullets or they’re dead. She gets it, and she’s a healthy, beautiful woman. And they’re rated equal.”
Kamala Harris’s election campaign posted a video of Trump’s remarks to X on Thursday, along with a paragraph which quoted the former president verbatim.
Alexander Vindman, a retired lieutenant colonel in the US Army who testified during Trump’s first impeachment investigation – and was fired by the president – quote-posted the Harris campaign on X, saying: “Trump dishonor(s) Medal of Honor recipients, our nation’s highest military award for distinguished acts of valor. He deserves nothing but disdain and disqualifies himself from public office.”
Trump dishonor Medal of Honor recipients, our nations highest military award for distinguished acts of valor. He deserves nothing but disdain and disqualifies himself from public office. https://t.co/I8LhRxAnhJ
— Alexander S. Vindman ❎ (@AVindman) August 16, 2024
Trump has a long history of denigrating service members, including the late John McCain.
Busy times for Philadelphia. The White House just announced that Joe Biden will be stopping in the city today for about three hours, on his way to Camp David for the weekend.
The president has visited Philadelphia repeatedly during his term, both for fundraisers and speeches, including one held in July after his disastrous debate against Donald Trump, but before he ended his bid for a second term:
Speaking of Pennsylvania, polls have lately shown Kamala Harris with the advantage in the state.
Yesterday, a Quinnipiac University survey of likely voters found her leading Donald Trump by three points in a head-to-head match-up, with 50% support to his 47%. If third-party candidates are factored in, she is at 48%, and the former president at 45%.
The university’s findings join other surveys showing the vice-president has the advantage in Pennsylvania, and poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight shows Harris with an overall lead of about two percentage points.
Winning Pennsylvania gives Harris a number of avenues to victory, including by carrying regional neighbors Michigan and Wisconsin, as well as the Nebraska congressional district centered on Omaha.
First presidential debate to be held in Philadelphia, ABC News says
Kamala Harris’s first encounter with Donald Trump – Politico reports that they have never met – will be held in Philadelphia on 10 September, the debate’s host ABC News announced this morning:
That’s the largest city in a swing state both campaigns view as crucial to their chances of victory. In addition to the date in September, Harris’s campaign says the vice-president is willing to do a second debate before the 5 November presidential election, though we do not yet know when.
Yesterday, Trump’s running mate JD Vance and Harris’s pick Tim Walz agreed to debate on 1 October.
Just what is Donald Trump’s plan to win another term in the White House? The Guardian’s Hugo Lowell reports that it centers around flipping Pennsylvania from blue four years ago to red this year, an outcome that would leave Kamala Harris with few paths to victory:
Donald Trump and his campaign remain laser-focused on Pennsylvania as the key swing state they have to win to beat Kamala Harris in the 2024 election, according to people familiar with the matter. The former president is preparing to hold a rally in Wilkes-Barre on Saturday afternoon.
The Trump campaign believes it still holds the advantage in the electoral college and has the easier paths to victory, despite a torrid month that has seen Harris ride a wave of Democratic enthusiasm and draw roughly level in several polls.
In the most straightforward path to victory, as briefed to senior advisers on the Trump campaign, Trump needs to flip Pennsylvania and Georgia – both of which he won in 2016 but lost in 2020 – while holding on to North Carolina.
The Trump campaign also sees other combinations in play, such as Trump winning Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona, which he also won in 2016. But the vast majority of the permutations require him to win the Keystone state, the people said.
Almost all of the roads lead through Pennsylvania. To that end, Trump has scheduled a rally in the state on Saturday to follow his rally in Harrisburg at the end of July. He has also promised to return to Butler county – where he survived an assassination attempt last month – in October.
The states the Trump campaign believes will decide the outcome of the election are the same as before Joe Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed Harris. “The fundamentals are still the same,” a Trump adviser recently said of how they viewed the electoral map unfolding.
Trump announces presidential transition team, despite not yet winning election
No one yet knows who will emerge victorious in the 5 November presidential election, but that has not stopped Donald Trump from announcing his presidential transition team this morning.
The five-person group includes his running mate, Ohio senator JD Vance, two of his sons, and two conservative business figures with ties to the former president.
“We will restore strength, competence and common sense to the Oval Office. I have absolute confidence the Trump-Vance Administration will be ready to govern effectively on Day One,” Trump said in a statement.
The panel will be co-chaired by Howard Lutnick, chairman and CEO of financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald and a Trump fundraiser, and Linda McMahon, the former Small Business Administration chief under Trump who also co-founded World Wrestling Entertainment. Vance is an honorary chair, as is Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr.
Harris to propose fighting child poverty, helping first-time homebuyers in major policy speech
Good morning, US politics blog readers. Kamala Harris is set to make an important economic policy speech today in the battleground state of North Carolina, as she seeks to press the advantage polls show her having against Donald Trump. According to her campaign, the vice-president will propose policies intended to help families and lower costs, including the restoration and expansion of a tax credit that cut child poverty dramatically three years ago, as well as federal assistance with the down payments of first-time homebuyers. We will hear plenty more about the proposals today – both from people who love them and hate them – but one thing we can say right off the top is that Harris is clearly trying to counterattack the toll inflation has taken on the American public, which was one of Joe Biden’s biggest problems during his presidency. The vice-president is scheduled to give her remarks at 2.45pm ET.
There is, of course, news today about Trump, as well, which is that the former president may soon begin holding rallies outside again. He has kept his appearances indoors since an assassin opened fire at his rally in Butler, Pennsylvania last month, killing an attendee, wounding Trump and injuring others. Yesterday, media reports emerged that the Secret Service had approved a plan to put bulletproof glass up when the ex-president speaks outdoors, and deploy other security measures such as drones.
Here’s what else is going on today:
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JD Vance, Trump’s running mate, will hold his third campaign event in as many days in Milwaukee, the largest city in swing state Wisconsin. His speech, billed as discussing crime, takes place at 12pm.
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The Democratic national convention begins on Monday and concludes on Thursday, with what is expected to be a major speech by Harris. Her campaign this morning announced they would be deploying top Democrats and volunteers to battleground states nationwide to make the case for her candidacy.
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Biden will at 11.15am proclaim a national monument marking a race riot that took place in Springfield, Illinois in 1908, which saw a white mob attack an African American community.