2024 Cox Plate tips and preview: Pride of Jenny will set up Mooney Valley, but can she keep out Mister Brightside and Via Sistina?

It seems like we say it every year, but what a mouth-watering competition this Cox Plate promises to be. Every year there’s an angle, something unusual, or a combination of factors that make it difficult to know where to look.

This year we have the somewhat unusual feature of only one horse (Mr Brightside) having previously run in the Cox Plate.

You have six of the nine horses who have had their first starts at Moonee Valley – based on the fact that we have two internationals who have had their first starts in Australia, a three-year-old horse who has done most of his racing in Sydney, While Chris Waller usually targets Flemington with his horses when he comes to Melbourne.

Three horses who have raced at the Valley before, Mister Brightside, Pride of Jenny and Evaporate, are just like him – they have a combined record of 7-3-0 from 11 starts.

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Saving the international runners until last, Pride of Jenny is the market-pick for Australians as this is being written, and now we know everything there is to know about her. She will rock the Valley with her bold front-running style, as she has done at every racetrack over the past 12 months since becoming a force.

Pride of Jenny has gone out to 2000 meters twice this year – the first time in the Australian Cup when she was nailed by Cascadian in the shadow of the post, but finished third by two lengths. The second time in the Queen Elizabeth, which will go down as one of this country’s most famous victories ever, when he led by 30 or 40 lengths before winning by six and a half lengths.

The margin of victory and lead that day was due to how the chasing group misjudged Pride of Jenny’s speed, and she appeared to be on her feet at the line. But maintaining the big difference is a different and friendlier task at Moonee Valley than at Randwick and Flemington.

Pride of Jenny, ridden by Declan Bates, wins the Ladbrokes Feehan Stakes at Moonee Valley Racecourse in Moonee Ponds, Australia on September 27, 2024. (Photo by Scott Barbour/Racing Photos via Getty Images)

Via Sistina has finished behind Pride of Jenny twice this year and James MacDonald has been chasing the horse for 12 months without riding a horse that has finished ahead of him. MacDonald got his strategy badly wrong at Queen Elizabeth, and then was flat at Via Sistina Turnbull also disliked the heavy track.

McDonald is considered a world-class jockey, but he proves to be only a world-class whinger whenever he lags behind Pride of Jenny. Via Sistina is quality, as proven by her Turnbull Stakes wins over Buckaroo and Elias, the former of whom performed tremendously in the Caulfield Cup, and has been in some of the hottest form races around. Can MacDonald find a way to win over Vea?

Mr. Brightside is truly remarkable in its consistency. His last 14 runs have been at Group 1 level, winning five and placing in eight others. He has finished in front of Pride of Jenny three times in those races, and behind her five times.

James McDonald. (Photo by Scott Barbour/Racing Photos via Getty Images)

Mister Brightside struggles on very firm tracks, in fast 2000 meter races, and/or in races with a tired leader. There is always some cushion in the valley, so there should be no problem, but it is hard to see him having the stamina to beat all these horses over this distance at the busy pace set.

Let’s put it this way, if Mr. Brightside is able to take Pride of Jenny over 2040m, there will be strong horses who can overtake him too.

Having been badly fielded by Chris Waller since his three-year-old days, Kowalika is probably in the form of his career. His first return at Tramway was excellent, his race at Epsom behind one of Australia’s most attractive horses was very good, and after failing in the Hill Stakes he enjoyed a step up to 1900 metres. He is definitely a Raffi who can come in at the end.

Some had question marks over Royal Patronage in the Hill Stakes over 1900 metres, doubts confirmed when Attrition and Kowalika both passed him in the straight. Now he has to run a little further in the opposite direction on an unfamiliar track, which promises to be a great test of endurance. He is and should be an outsider to the field.

After running together in the Caulfield Guineas, the three-year-olds Broadsiding and Evaporate clashed again, finishing fourth and third respectively.

Evaporate handled the track better than Broadsiding that day and Moonee Valley had far more experience here with three wins from three starts. He has better blocking and will sit further forward in the race than his peer rival. He has won both leading and last-place races, so he is certainly versatile, but he has never been in a race with a horse like Pride of Jenny setting the pace.

Following his exploits of strength as a two-year-old during the Sydney autumn and Brisbane winter, Broadsiding has long been considered a chance to win the Cox Plate in his three-year-old season. He justified the hype with his first Golden Rose win, but failed to flatter in the Caulfield Guineas and was defeated at home by Evaporate.

If you want to favor three-year-olds, you can either favor a more exposed talent at a lower price, or at triple the price favor someone who is a track specialist and has had better recent performances. doing. Everyone has to take their own decision.

How to line up two international runners is a question we have to ask these days. Last year, we saw Romantic Warrior winning this race in a photo, but we saw him win the race here only a few weeks ago. In 2021, State of Rest raided the trophy cabinet in its first round here.

The clear line for the prognosis is Lys Gracieux, who won the 2019 Cox Plate in powerful style. She was a dual Group 1 winning mare, placing six times at the highest level in Asia.

Prognosis has yet to win a Group 1 race, and has finished behind Romantic Warrior a few times in the last 18 months. One way to poke holes in his chances is by using recent history and historical precedent, as well as his famous ability to handle Mooney Valley the first time around and miss the start. How much of a start will he give to the Pride of Genny and can he overtake the Via Sistina.