The new NBA season begins Tuesday night after a quieter than usual summer.
Star trades and free agency moves are limited by strict salary cap rules. The Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder have been left to run away from their respective conferences.
There are some interesting options and several other betting markets for the regular season, which I have previewed below.
Dramatic trading can be profitable
In one of the few major offseason trades, the New York Knicks acquired Karl-Anthony Towns for Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo and salary filler. Incredibly, none of the three of them seemed happy with this change.
The fallout included attention on Twitter, a moody press conference and an uncomfortable preseason reunion in New York. However, the deal could work for both parties.
The deal addressed the weaknesses of both, filling Nix’s opening at center and adding depth for the Timberwolves.
It’s been a year of change in New York, with OG Anunoby joining in late December. They also made a big effort to land Brooklyn’s Mikal Bridges. This leaves the Knicks with enough defensive versatility and a starting lineup full of shooting threat to challenge the Celtics.
While depth is an issue, coach Tom Thibodeau is happy to hit the ground running with his starters. The fear is that they will be blown out again by May, but the Knicks can beat Boston in the regular season.
Thibodeau led his charges to the wire to finish second last season. Any post-championship slide for the Celtics will be mirrored by the Knicks. No defending champion has topped its conference next season since 2019, so New York has an attractive chance to top the East.
Minnesota isn’t in as good a position to chase down the Thunder, but Randle’s contract is a great trade chip to use midseason. Their bench depth makes them a threat in the playoffs and they look the most attractive option among the chasing pack at 10/1.
While it is a shame that their roster was torn down from last season’s Western Conference Finals, this shuffle will help them long term.
Anthony Edwards is now their undoubted star player after a stellar performance in the playoffs. He averaged 27 points, 7 rebounds and 6.5 assists. He has been hailed as the future of the league, with Netflix’s recent NBA documentary putting him at the forefront.
Edwards is taking to Minnesota after KAT’s departure, fueling an MVP narrative in an open year. Nikola Jokic is unlikely to add to his three wins in four seasons, with Joel Embiid unlikely to meet the minimum games requirement, opening the door for someone new.
Edwards finished seventh in the poll this year and his profile has risen hugely since then. The Timberwolves are a must-watch team and Edwards is the main attraction. He has the swagger to promote an MVP and provides great value for a league looking for a new American superstar.
Vets prepared for bounce-back season
A major topic ahead of the new season is the promotion of some of the youth teams who impressed last season. However, there is something to be said about the teams that finished last year at the bottom.
The Miami Heat have had a rough year and a quiet offseason means many are expecting them to regress further. However, they managed one win to finish outside the top six despite their struggles.
This season’s build has seen him lay down the law with top earner Jimmy Butler, who had a poor season where he missed a lot of games. Early signs are that the Heat are refocused, with Butler showing much of the intensity in the preseason that has eluded those fixtures in recent years.
Miami regularly pulls rabbits out of the hat with their player development, so Caleb Martin’s departure should do them no harm. They shouldn’t have such a difficult, injury-plagued season this time, so back them to return to the top six.
The Golden State Warriors also had a disappointing year, managing only three wins out of sixth and five out of the top four. The drama surrounding Klay Thompson’s contract put pressure on him. They have shifted his salary to some interesting role players.
Pairing Buddy Hield with Steph Curry should see the Warriors make threes. They need Aaron Wiggins to improve, but Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski can continue their growth and push the Warriors up.
Regular Season Award Predictions
Sixth Man of the Year: Donte DiVincenzo @ 10/1
Shooting guards have dominated the Sixth Man of the Year award in recent years, with 11 of the last 13 winners holding that spot. Anyone who can post good offensive numbers off the bench can compete and Donte DiVincenzo fits that description.
He scored a career-high 15.5 points per game in 63 starts for the Knicks last season. He finds himself behind Edwards and Mike Conley in the rotation following his trade to Minnesota, but he is an efficient stand-in for both.
He made 42.5% of his threes in the playoffs last term and this great form could make him a key contributor off the bench for the Timberwolves.
Coach of the Year: Erik Spoelstra @ 16/1
There’s no argument that Erik Spoelstra is the best coach in the NBA, but he hasn’t won the award yet. There are a lot of factors involved, but the Miami Heat coach is sure to win soon.
Due to low expectations for the Heat this season he is priced at 16/1. However, I have already backed him for a bounce-back year and that will keep him in the frame. Spoelstra finished sixth in the voting after a down year, so there’s likely a desire to finally hand him the trophy.
The eight coaches above them in the betting will need to do a lot to exceed expectations given the parity in the league. Miami could silence their doubters and Spoelstra’s high regard could be in its favor.
Rookie of the Year: Dalton Knecht @ 11/1
The race for Rookie of the Year is wide open, with ninth overall pick Zach Eddy leading the way. The 2024 draft class has been notoriously written off, but it offers some betting value.
11/1 shot Dalton Knecht is my pick, making him the first Laker to win the award since the franchise moved to LA. The sharpshooter shot 38.3% in college, including a 39.7% rate in his third and final year.
This Lakers roster is desperate for some perimeter threat and new coach JJ Redick can teach them every trick in the book. LeBron James thrives with shooters around him and playing alongside a superstar gives Knecht a chance to shine.
The 23-year-old won the Newcomer and Player of the Year awards in his conference last season. He looks like a perfect fit for this Lakers team and his reputation with no real superstar potential in this class could swing the award in his favor.
173/1 Division Winner Accumulator
Knicks, Heat, Bucks, Thunder, Suns, Mavs @ 173/1
The Knicks and Heat hold appeal in their respective divisions, while the Thunder have the edge over a Timberwolves team in the regular season that awaits a mid-season turnaround.
The Milwaukee Bucks had everything that could go wrong last season and still finished in third place in the East. They should be further strengthened by some good offseason additions.
The Dallas Mavericks went to the NBA Finals and their southwest rivals don’t have the consistency to match them. Finally, the Phoenix Suns added Mike Budenholzer, who has a great regular season record. Adding a true point guard to their Big Three should lead to a top four finish in the West.
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