WNBA Semifinals Predictions: A Finals rematch, lots of chalk and an MVP face-off

Surprise in the first round of the 2024 WNBA Playoffs? Try a sweep. The top four seeds advance to two blockbuster semifinal series, which begin on Sunday.

The drama that was lacking in the first round with four 2-0 sweeps may be in abundance in the semi-finals. number 1 seed new york liberty Will compete with number 4 Las Vegas Aces (3 p.m. ET, ABC) in a rematch of last season’s WNBA Finals. That matchup was set for Tuesday.

On Wednesday, the No. 3 seed connecticut sun Advance to the WNBA Semifinals for the sixth consecutive season indiana fever,

Then Nafeesa Collier Scored record 42 points in WNBA playoffs as No. 2 seed minnesota lynx kicked out phoenix mercury What could be the last game of Mercury Legend Diana TaurasiCareer

Both semifinal matchups are between teams that have won WNBA titles and teams that have not won a WNBA title. The Aces are the two-time defending champions, while New York is 0–5 in their previous attempts for the championship.

The Lynx have won four titles – they came during seven seasons when Minnesota made the finals six times. The Suns have played in the final four times, most recently in 2022, but have never won.

Four of the top five finishers in MVP voting will compete in the semi-finals: Unanimous winners ah, wilson of Las Vegas, second-place finisher Collier, of New York Breanna Stewart (3rd) and of Connecticut alyssa thomas (Fifth).

Let’s take a look at the best-of-five semi-final matches.

Regular season series: New York won 3-0

How they got here: New York defeated Atlanta in the first round by scoring 36 points. Sabrina Ionescu in a decisive victory on Tuesday. Las Vegas overtakes Seattle with big demonstrations ah, wilson (24 points, 13 rebounds), kelsey plum (29 marks) and chelsea gray (9 assists).

How do they match: Wilson vs. Stewart is the marquee matchup. Both superstars have performed brilliantly in the playoffs since Stewart played in Seattle and have five MVP awards between them. Wilson has been phenomenal throughout the season, averaging a career-high and WNBA-record 26.9 points and 11.9 rebounds per game during the regular season. Stewart averaged 20.4 ppg and 8.5 rpg. Not every superstar matchup gives the team’s top players the opportunity to guard each other, but Wilson and Stewart will do so, even if it’s not on every possession.

Outside of Stewart and Wilson, there are interesting matchups all over the floor. New York went in against Atlanta with a big lineup that was rookie leone fibich in place of experienced Courtney VanderslootThe lineup gave the Liberty additional size and length on the perimeter. At 6-foot-4 inches tall, Fibich is quite fast. jackie young or grey, and its length can obstruct perimeter lanes.

The big question for Vegas is who will do security Jonquel Jones And Stewart? Wilson can protect one of them, but she can’t protect both. Aces coach Becky Hammon said the fifth spot in the Aces lineup depends on the matchup. kia stokes Started both games against Seattle and is most familiar with the current Aces lineup, bringing enough size to hang with Jones, but is a liability offensively. However, other options on the Vegas bench do not exactly solve this problem. Las Vegas certainly has a disadvantage in the frontcourt – outside of Wilson, but can the Aces absorb that disparity and compensate for it in the backcourt? The answer to that question could determine the outcome of the series.

New York Liberty and Las Vegas Aces meet again in WNBA playoffs @Andraya_Carter Gives her 4 keys to victory in the 2023 WNBA Finals rematch 🔑 pic.twitter.com/LwQgrxVelM

– espnW (@espnW) 25 September 2024

What will have the biggest impact on the series? Jones averaged 19.7 points and 11 rebounds in the Liberty’s three games against the Aces this season, five points and two rebounds more than his regular season totals. In the first regular season meeting, Jones had 34 points. In the second, he had 17 rebounds. In the third – when Wilson did not play – Jones had 15 points and 8 boards. If he can string together some explosive plays, it could be the difference. Jones is also an MVP. If she plays like that version of herself, Las Vegas could be in trouble.

New York will advance if: Fibich and Jones won their respective matches. New York’s lineup presents unique challenges for Las Vegas. Young, who is an elite defender, cannot guard Ionescu and Fibich. Plum shapes every guard. Gray is not 6 feet 4 inches tall. But someone has to guard Fibich. In the frontcourt, someone has to protect Jones. If the Liberty can execute and take advantage of those mismatches, New York will return to the Finals for another shot at the franchise’s first title.

Las Vegas will proceed if: Its backcourt plays at a level where it is capable of playing on both ends of the floor. Wilson has proven throughout the season that she will appear at an elite level, but the Aces did not have consistent guard play. Hammon refers to Plum, Gray and Young as the “separation factors” of the Aces. When that trio hits shots and successfully applies pressure on the perimeter, Las Vegas is very hard to beat. , katie barnes

Who will win the series?

Andrea Adelson: Aces in 5
Katie Barnes: Aces in 5
Charlie Cream: freedom in 4
Shaun Hurd: Aces in 5
Myron Medcalf: Aces in 5
Neel Pen: freedom in 5
Kevin Pelton: freedom in 5
Alexa Filippou: freedom in 5
Michael Voepel: Aces in 5

Regular season series: Connecticut won 2-1

How they got here: Giants-led Suns beat No. 6 seed Indiana 2-0 in first round alyssa thomas And crazy bonerThomas, who had a triple-double in the first game, finished the series with a combined 31 points, 26 assists and 15 rebounds. Bonner had a combined 37 points and 14 rebounds. And marina mabreyAcquired via trade in July, had a combined 44 points and 9 assists. The Lynx got the best effort from No. 7 seed Phoenix, but Minnesota – especially Collier – was too good. He had 38 points in the opener, and chastised himself in mild fashion for missing two free throws in Wednesday’s 101-88 win.

Of course, one more free throw and he would have had the playoff scoring record with 43 points. But she was 14 of 20 from the field and 12 of 14 from the line. “I was just taking what the defense gave me, what my teammates were giving me,” Collier said in a master class in understatement.

How do they match: These were the league’s best two teams in defensive rating during the regular season: the Suns 94.1 and the Lynx 94.8. They were also the best at defending the 3-point line: Minnesota limited their opponents to 30.1% shooting and Connecticut held them to 31.3%.

All three games of the regular season were close. Connecticut won the first on May 23, 83–82 in overtime. The Suns won the second 78–73 on July 4. Minnesota won 78–76 on September 17.

Both teams also have experienced coaches: Cheryl Reeve guided the Lynx to all four of their titles and the Suns’ Stephanie White was an assistant when Indiana won its title in 2012 and when the Fever were last in the WNBA Finals in 2015. Was the head coach. Indiana lost to Reeves and the Lynx in five games that year. White left the WNBA after 2016 to coach collegiately at Vanderbilt, but returned with the Suns last year.

What will have the biggest impact on the series? It may seem simple, but which defense is best? When both are very good, it’s strength versus strength.

The teams’ offensive ratings are also nearly identical: the Lynx were fourth at 102.8 and the Suns were fifth at 102.3.

In the first round, Collier proved to be vulnerable, so what plan will the Suns have for him? Collier had 31 points in the first matchup with the Suns this season and 25 points in the third. She stopped at 9 in the second game.

Thomas, 32, and Bonner, 37, are two of the league’s most experienced players when it comes to the playoffs, and they once again look to rise to the occasion at the biggest time.

If those three players are performing well, who else will step up? Mabrey had a stellar performance in the first round series for the Suns. Another Notre Dame grad, Kayla McBrideWas a strong performer for Minnesota.

Minnesota will advance if: The Lynx have been able to move the ball anywhere near as well against Connecticut as they did against Phoenix. Obviously, Mercury is not as good as the Sun defensively. But it was still impressive how well the Lynx shared the ball in that series: they had 30 assists and 10 turnovers in Game 1 and 28 and 7 in Game 2.

We know both of these teams are strong defensively. But Minnesota also led the WNBA in assists at 23.0 per game during the regular season. If the Lynx can attack the Suns with that kind of accuracy, they will win the series.

Connecticut will advance if: The Sun is able to slow down Collier – we will not say to stop, Because that’s not going to happen – and if they do they beat the Lynx at their own game by limiting them from the 3-point line. Fever increased 26.7% from the 3-point range in Wednesday’s Suns loss and 21.4% in Sunday’s loss. This was a large part of the reason the Fever were not able to execute their offense as well as they had toward the end of the regular season. The Suns make everything difficult defensively, and they are as physical as any team in the league.

Who will win the series?

Andrea Adelson: sun in 5
Katie Barnes: Links in 4
Charlie Cream: Links in 4
Shaun Hurd: Links in 5
Myron Medcalf: Links in 5
Neel Pen: Links in 5
Kevin Pelton: Links in 5
Alexa Filippou: Links in 5
Michael Voepel: Links in 5