This season has a fresh feeling Europa Conference League, not only with a change in name but with a completely new format for the budding competition.
as it happened to me Europa League one-off tipsThe loss of sides from a higher UEFA competition changes the playing field when it comes to picking a winner.
Many countries are represented in the Conference League, which includes only four clubs from Europe’s top five leagues. Chelsea, Real Betis and Fiorentina are the early favourites, but there is reason to look elsewhere as you will see in my 16/1 and 20/1 selections.
How does the new Conference League format work?
Like other European competitions, the Conference League features a 36-team league stage where the top eight qualify for the last 16, with the teams ranked ninth to 24th progressing to a preliminary knockout round.
Unlike the other two competitions, Conference League sides face only six matches in the first stage.
Conference League Winner Probabilities
- Chelsea- 7/4
- Real Betis – 4/1
- Fiorentina – 5/1
- Gentleman – 16/1
- Panathinaikos – 16/1
- Copenhagen – 16/1
- Heidenheim – 16/1
,All odds correct at time of writing with bet365 on 1 September 2024
There are clearly three big players in this competition, but there are reasons to oppose each of them. Fiorentina have lost the last two Conference League finals, but the manager who led them there – Vincenzo Italiano – has departed for Bologna.
Real Betis joined the competition from the Europa League last season and were eliminated by Dinamo Zagreb in the first knockout round. They have exited in the first knockout round in three of their last four campaigns and their lack of European success is a concern.
As far as Chelsea are concerned, they are the favourites. As ridiculous as it sounds given their transfer mess, they lacked depth in their qualifying tie with Servette. A 2-1 defeat in the second leg to the Swiss team, who crashed out of this competition at the last 16 stage last season, doesn’t fill me with confidence in their return at odds of 7/4.
Accurate Conference League Predictions
Conference League outright winners – FC Copenhagen at 16/1
After reaching the last 16 of the Champions League last season, there has been a steep decline for Copenhagen in Europe. While they lost to Manchester City in two legs earlier this year, the fact that they survived the group stage featuring Bayern Munich, Galatasaray and Manchester United shows their quality.
The Danish team has been relegated to the Conference League after losing a tough battle for the Danish title last season. They finished just four points behind champions Midtjylland, but their third-place finish sent them into UEFA’s third-tier tournament.
Copenhagen had topped their group in their previous appearance in this competition in 2021/22, but lost to Europa League side PSV. The Danish outfit will have nothing to fear from these types of sides this season.
Copenhagen lost some key players from last season’s European tour, but they have reinvested well. They have brought in defensive depth, adding a new goalkeeper in the form of English stopper Nathan Trott from West Ham and they have brought Danish midfielder Thomas Delaney back to the club.
Copenhagen have made a strong start to their Superliga campaign and after their European exploits last season, they are my clear winning tip at 16/1.
League stage winners – Vitoria Guimaraes at 20/1
With all 36 teams competing in the league stage, the market for the team to top the final standings is another interesting betting angle. Vitoria Guimaraes are a side worth considering at 25/1 for a strong performance, but their 20/1 price to lead the league stage caught my attention.
The Portuguese team had to go through three rounds of qualifiers to reach this stage and they won all six games nil and scored 17 times during this period. Guimaraes finished just nine points behind Porto in the league last season, a team that fans of Europa League success.
The draw was also good for the Portuguese team, who were seeded in pot three. They face top-seeded sides Fiorentina, but beating the Italians at home doesn’t seem so bad. Their other five rivals – Djurgården, Astana, Mlada Boleslav, St. Gallen and Celje – look beatable for the Portuguese team.
The fixtures are also well lined up, as they meet Fiorentina in their final game and host Celje and Mlada Boleslav in their first three matches. Guimaraes have already made a good start in Europe this season and they can take advantage of that fixture list to get points on the board early. If his strong form continues, you will get massive value from his 20/1 price.
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